When the Broncos fired first year head coach Nathaniel Hackett with two games left in the 2022/2023 season, Broncos fans rejoiced. When the Broncos agreed to terms with the Saints on compensation to acquire Head Coach Sean Payton, who was ready to come out of retirement, many felt the move was a ‘homerun’. Russell Wilson had an awful first year in Denver, but many felt Hackett was the culprit behind Russ’s and the team’s woes. Wilson is off to a better start this season under Payton, but the Broncos have been worse as a whole so far this season compared to last.
After losing to the Chiefs on Thursday night, the Broncos fell to 1-5, their season is likely over already. After 6-weeks last season, the Broncos were 2-4, not a major difference sure, but let’s look at the losses from last year. They lost to the Seahawks week one 17-16, 32-23 in week 4 to the Raiders, 12-9 in OT vs the Colts, and 19-16 the following week to the Chargers, once again in OT. Let’s look at the Broncos losses this season. A 17-16 week one loss to the Raiders, 35-33 week 2 loss to the Commanders, 70-20 week 3 loss vs the Dolphins, 31-21 loss to the Rogers-less Jets in week 5, and 19-8 to the Chiefs on Thursday night. In 2022 the Broncos lost their 4 games by a combined 16 points, they lost to the Dolphins by 50 points. Even taking out that outlier, they’ve lost 4 games by a combined 24 points so far this season. In 2022 the Broncos were in every game they lost outside of the Raiders, but in 2023 the only game they’ve been in was week one. They got a wild hail Mary vs the Commanders, they never felt like they had a shot in the second half of that game. While Russ has played better and Sean Payton is certainly an upgrade over Hackett, the Broncos have regressed by a decent margin, why?
Looking at the Broncos numbers I want to exclude the Dolphin’s game for two reasons. The first being that it is an outlier, and the second being that the numbers are still awful without it. Through their other 5 games the Broncos are allowing 246.4 passing yards per game, 136.8 rushing yards per game, 12 total TDs, and allowing 26 points per game. These rankings without the Dolphins game would put the Broncos at 14th in passing yards per game allowed, 8th most rushing yards allowed per game, and the 9th most points allowed per game. The secondary would be middle of the packish, Patrick Surtain II is elite and the only thing keeping that secondary afloat right now. All of their other rankings have them as a bottom 10 defensive unit and of course, when you factor in the dolphin’s game their ranks are; 3rd worst, worst, worst. Looking at the offensive numbers for all 6 of the Broncos game they are averaging, 200.3 passing yards per game 20th, 106 rushing yards per game 19th, and 21.5 points per game 19th. Meanwhile the Broncos have turned the ball over at the leagues 2nd highest rate with 11 total turnovers, yet they’ve only produced 6 total turnovers as a defense.
The Broncos offense has not been awful, but they’re still slightly below average across the board, and the defense is too much of a liability to cover for the offense. Right now, Spotrac has the Broncos total cap space at $1,769,387, while overthecap has them at $817,137. They can make some moves and already have, part of that low total is due to cutting Randy Gregory already, his current deadcap hit is 22 million, which drops significantly, down to 6 million next season. With the Broncos season having officially spiraled out of control, it is highly possible for them to be big time sellers at the trade deadline, which is on October 31st. Russell Wilson’s contract is far to massive, carrying a deadcap hit of 107 million this season and 85 million in 2024/2025, he will likely be sticking around. The Broncos should probably be looking to offload any player that can fetch them some draft capital and cap relief. Through 12 weeks of football, the first 6 games in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Broncos have started a combined 3-9. Two seasons in a row their season has seemingly ended before week 7. With that in mind, no player on their roster should be deemed ‘untouchable’, the Broncos need a full reset, and possibly with their coaching staff as well.